The EYE

Adaptive · rolling-50 metrics
connecting…
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Rolling window — / 50
Window age
Win rate
Cum PnL
Last update
Resolved Polymarket-only outcomes. Excludes pre-h11 and TP/SL exits.

Strategies

Ranked by expectancy. IC = Pearson correlation between strategy signal (dir × confidence) and realised 5-min move; ≥+0.20 = ×1.5 boost, |IC|<0.05 or IC≤−0.10 = ×0.5 dampen. Needs ≥10 pairs. Sub-strategies that don't open trades on their own show italic "attr" cells — proxy stats from distributing each composite trade's PnL by signed contrib weight.

Strategy Trades WR Expectancy Cum PnL IC Horizon Pairs IC effect Weight State

By Timeframe

TFNWRExp

By Side

SideNWRExp

By Plan

PlanNWRExp

Loss patterns — market regimes that systematically lose

Cross-references closed PM trades with the regime snapshot at decision time. ≥8 trades for danger, ≥15 for sweet spot.

🔴 Danger zones (WR ≤ 35%, n ≥ 8)

FeatureBucketTradesWRMult

🟢 Sweet spots (WR ≥ 60%, n ≥ 15)

FeatureBucketTradesWRMult
All regime features & buckets

Confidence calibration

Engine's confidence vs actual outcome WR. Multiplier shown is what calibrator will apply.

Bucket Trades Predicted Actual WR Δ Multiplier

Per-plan calibration Phase 10

Each plan's own confidence-bucket multipliers. Engine consults this first when params.applyCalibration=true AND bucket health passes (≥3 buckets with ≥5 trades). Otherwise falls back to the global table above.

Plan Trades Buckets ≥5 Reset cutoff Decision Multiplier range Window